Taiwan's ruling party is riding high in the polls ahead of next month's local elections, but President Lai Ching-te is warning his own side not to get overconfident.

• Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Bo-yang has pulled ahead of incumbent Chiang Wan-an in recent polls, energizing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
• Lai is warning that China may try to swing the vote through disinformation, AI-driven propaganda, organized crime links, and local proxies, not just traditional messaging.
• He's telling all DPP candidates and staff to stay cautious and avoid complacency, pushing back against fake news with facts rather than assuming the lead holds.
• Separate polling shows Lai's approval and trust numbers climbing to their highest levels since early 2025, and former president Tsai Ing-wen remains the most popular political figure tested.
• Rival camps are maneuvering too: opposition figures are courting third-party support, and the Taipei race is increasingly being read as an early preview of the 2028 presidential contest.

Outlook: Expect both sides to intensify campaigning and warnings about foreign interference as the November 28 vote approaches, with Taipei's result likely shaping momentum heading into 2028.