Netanyahu's Likud came out ahead in Israel's election but without enough seats to form a government, leaving the country in political limbo and raising the risk of a new war with Iran.

• Likud won the most seats but Netanyahu's coalition fell short of a majority, and no rival bloc hit 61 seats either.
• Netanyahu leaned hard on anti-Arab messaging, including a debunked AI-faked image, to stop the opposition from uniting with Arab-majority parties.
• The opposition, led by Eisenkot, has the numbers on paper but may be too fractured and wary of partnering with Arab parties to actually take power.
• Staying on as caretaker prime minister lets Netanyahu push for a new round of fighting with Iran and expand hardline actions in the West Bank, even though his military chiefs have reportedly resisted a unilateral strike.
• The U.S. reportedly warned Gulf states to brace for a short, intense round of Iran fighting, suggesting Washington may again back Netanyahu's push.

Outlook: Expect weeks of coalition deadlock, a likely push toward new elections, and continued pressure from Netanyahu to restart conflict with Iran while he still holds power.