Bitcoin and crypto markets are in a wait-and-see mode hours before the Fed's rate decision, which could shift prices in either direction — mildly good news if the Fed holds, bad news if it surprises with a hike.

• Markets are pricing in a 93% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged today, which would likely trigger only a small, short-lived bullish bounce since it's already expected.
• A rate hike is seen as unlikely (7% odds) but would hit markets hard if it happens.
• Bitcoin's bigger-picture weekly trend is still bullish, continuing the longer-term uptrend that started after the 2022 bottom, but the shorter-term daily trend has been weak for about a month, so big rallies aren't expected yet — just a small relief bounce.
• Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Chainlink are all holding their support levels and could see similar small bounces, but none are expected to break out strongly.
• Bitcoin's share of the crypto market is stuck at a resistance level; if it breaks higher, that would likely be bad news for most altcoins even while Bitcoin itself does fine.

Outlook: Expect a quiet, choppy stretch with a possible small upward bounce if the Fed holds rates steady as expected, but no major rally — watch for extra volatility right around the Fed announcement and press conference.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Neutral to slightly bullish short-term, bullish long-term, cautious medium-term (ongoing weakness since a bearish divergence began about a month ago)
• **Support:** $80,000–$82,000 (3-day chart); deeper support near $79,000–$79,100
• **Resistance:** Prior highs not specified numerically, but daily bearish divergence caps upside near-term
• **Targets:** Slight bullish relief or sideways chop in coming days; no major move back to highs expected short-term
• **Invalidation:** A break below $79,000 area could trigger a liquidity grab to the downside, especially on a hawkish Fed outcome