New polling and spending data point to a strong Democratic wave in the midterms, with Republicans scrambling to defend seats they once considered safe.

• Fresh district-level polls show big swings toward Democrats almost everywhere, with some areas shifting over 20 points compared to the 2024 presidential vote.
• Republicans are now spending money to defend deep-red seats, including one held by a top GOP leader in a district Trump won by nearly 40 points, a sign of real panic inside the party.
• The GOP's mid-decade redistricting push in states like Texas and Florida may be backfiring, putting more seats in play and confusing incumbents who no longer know their own voters.
• Latino voters, hit hard by high prices, tariffs, and immigration enforcement, are swinging away from Republicans in Texas, Florida, and Arizona, scrambling races once seen as locks.
• Elon Musk has poured over $400 million into the midterms, but Democrats are crushing Republicans in small-dollar, grassroots donations, which may be a stronger signal of which candidates are actually strong.

Outlook: Early voting trends and the money flow suggest Democrats are favored to make major gains, though a few states like Michigan look tighter than expected.