Israel's political crisis is deepening, with analysts suggesting Netanyahu provoked Iran over the weekend to boost his standing in ongoing elections, a move that could complicate U.S.-Israel relations no matter who wins.

• Israel reportedly crossed into Iranian airspace, but Iran chose not to retaliate, seen as a political move by Netanyahu to help his coalition chances.
• Election results could take weeks or months to settle, and Netanyahu may keep pushing for conflict with Iran in the meantime to boost his position.
• A rival, Eisenkott, publicly broke with Netanyahu's long-running claim that Iran is close to a nuclear weapon, a crack in what had been a unified Israeli political line.
• Even if Netanyahu loses power, analysts expect Israel's overall approach to Iran and the Palestinians to stay largely the same, though a less Trump-friendly leader could slow momentum toward war.
• A Netanyahu exit would also fuel a political fight in Washington over whether Israel's human rights problems were just "his fault" or run deeper.

Outlook: Expect a messy, drawn-out coalition fight in Israel, with the risk of renewed conflict with Iran hanging over the process regardless of who ends up in charge.