Anthropic's filing for a stock market debut openly warns that its business depends heavily on Taiwan staying stable, which is a red flag for AI investors and good context for TSMC watchers.

• Anthropic's IPO paperwork says almost all advanced AI chips come from Taiwan, mostly through TSMC, and any war, blockade, or disaster there could choke off chip supply for years.
• The company admitted it has already struggled at times to get enough chips because demand is outrunning TSMC's capacity.
• TSMC's new US factories are not far enough along to fix this anytime soon, so the Taiwan risk stays in place for now.
• Anthropic also flagged that high-bandwidth memory chips, dominated by SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, could become a second bottleneck if big AI buyers lock up supply first.
• Separately, Taiwan's stock market has been one of the world's best performers this year, and Taiwanese investors are also weighing new money into financial stocks and ETFs as earnings season rolls on.

Outlook: Expect continued investor focus on Taiwan Strait tensions and chip/memory supply as key risks for AI companies, even as Anthropic pushes ahead with its IPO.