Rising retail sales look like a good sign but may actually be a warning that inflation, not real demand, is driving the numbers.

• Spending totals are going up, but that doesn't mean people are buying more stuff.
• A grocery bill that's 10% higher could just mean the same food now costs 10% more, not a bigger cart.
• The same pattern shows up in electricity, gas, insurance, property taxes, and housing.
• Added together, people can end up spending thousands more a year without living any better.

Outlook: Expect rising spending numbers to keep overstating economic strength as long as prices keep climbing faster than paychecks.