Markets and ordinary drivers face a bad setup as the US moves closer to a major new round of strikes on Iran, which could push oil and gas prices even higher.

• The US military has plans ready for strikes on Iran bigger than earlier ones, and officials say it's a matter of when, not if, Trump gives the order — most likely after the midterm elections.
• Gas is already running high, and oil (Brent crude) sits near $116 a barrel; a new round of strikes could push both higher.
• The Treasury Secretary told Iranians to stock up on heating fuel and gasoline now, warning of shortages — language that sounds just as relevant as a warning for Americans given rising energy costs at home.
• Away from the war talk, Microsoft is offering buyouts to 60,000 workers as it leans into AI, and Elon Musk is reportedly taking on large new debt tied to chip purchases, both signs of a shakier jobs and spending picture.
• Trump's approval is sliding even in strongly Republican states, suggesting political risk at home even as attention is on the Middle East.

Outlook: Watch for a possible strike order on Iran after the midterms, which would likely send oil and gas prices higher and add new pressure on an already shaky economy.