Michigan's Senate race is turning into a referendum on racist campaigning, and early voting signs point to a Democratic surge that could overcome it.

• Early voting data shows Democratic counties turning out at nearly two-thirds of their 2024 pace, while Republican counties are only at under half, suggesting a possible Democratic wave in the state.
• Republican candidate Mike Rogers has leaned on Trump-style attacks against Democratic opponent Abdul El-Sayed, calling him a jihadist and tying him to unproven Muslim Brotherhood claims, while dodging questions about whether he's a reliable Trump vote.
• A new report alleges Rogers' wife built a defense-contracting business worth hundreds of millions of dollars after years of overseas trips and ties connected to his time in Congress, raising conflict-of-interest questions Rogers is now threatening to sue over.
• Democratic infighting is also a factor: a past primary rival publicly declined to say El-Sayed's name or firmly back him days before the election, even as a former president campaigned for him.
• Mainstream media coverage has focused heavily on minor controversies around El-Sayed while giving Rogers little scrutiny, something critics say is distorting how competitive and consequential the race actually is.

Outlook: The race is expected to be extremely close, with early-vote enthusiasm among Democrats potentially offsetting a heavy, racially charged ad campaign against El-Sayed.