Trump and Netanyahu appear to be signaling a renewed full-scale war with Iran aimed at toppling its government, which would be a major escalation and bad news for regional stability and markets.

• Trump publicly backed Netanyahu's push to "finish the job" against Iran, with both leaders using war-footing language.
• Military deployments in the region reportedly match or exceed levels seen before the last round of fighting earlier in the year.
• The timing lines up with the midterm elections, raising the question of whether a new war gets launched before or after voters go to the polls.
• Analysts see no obvious off-ramp — a buildup this large is seen as unlikely to just be a show of force that fades away without action.
• Netanyahu faces growing domestic criticism in Israel over corruption, which may be adding pressure on the political calculus around the conflict.

Outlook: Watch the midterms as the likely trigger point — a new war with Iran could launch either right before or shortly after the vote.