New polling points to a weak spot for Republicans heading into the next election: their voters just aren't fired up.

• Only 35% of Republican voters say they're excited to vote, versus 59% of Democrats, a huge enthusiasm gap that could hurt turnout.
• Low enthusiasm tends to mean people skip voting even if they'd tell a pollster they support a candidate, so the real results could be worse for Republicans than polls suggest.
• In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton and pulling in independent and even some Republican voters, something Beto O'Rourke struggled to do in his past run.
• Paxton is seen as a weaker, less comfortable candidate than John Cornyn, leaving some Republicans unenthused about their own nominee.
• Texas polling has a reputation for being unreliable, so actual election-day results could swing either direction.

Outlook: Weak Republican enthusiasm plus Talarico's crossover appeal could make Texas unexpectedly competitive, but polling volatility there means the race is still far from settled.