AIPAC's announcement that it will stop direct campaign donations is being described by the watchdog group that tracks it as a shell game, not a retreat — bad news for anyone hoping foreign-lobby money in US elections is shrinking.

• AIPAC says it will end direct contributions and endorsements, but it openly plans to push even more money to candidates through individual donors and its existing super PAC, which can still raise unlimited funds.
• The group behind Track AIPAC says this just makes the money harder to trace, forcing them to follow donor networks and a web of over 80 affiliated PACs with innocuous names instead of one easy-to-spot source.
• AIPAC's own members already gave over $90 million directly to candidates this cycle, and the group says that number will grow next cycle even without the formal AIPAC PAC label attached.
• Despite the pressure, challengers who reject this money are having an unusually strong cycle, with dozens of non-AIPAC-aligned candidates expected to win seats in the next Congress.
• Mainstream outlets have so far relied on the watchdog group's own data rather than doing independent reporting on the donor networks themselves.

Outlook: Expect the money to keep flowing through less visible channels, with both sides gearing up for a bigger, more expensive fight over these seats next cycle.