Speculation is building that if a new US strike on Iran goes badly, Trump will dump the blame on Defense Secretary Hegseth rather than own the decision himself.

• Trump has a pattern of never admitting fault and instead pinning failures on subordinates, even top officials he publicly praised.
• Hegseth is seen as likely safe from being fired until after any attack happens, since removing him beforehand would make a later failure look like Trump's own mistake.
• Past defense secretaries were ousted shortly after midterm elections, so a similar timeline is expected if this plays out again.
• Tension between the two has already shown up publicly, including Trump overruling Hegseth's call for televised executions of enemy fighters.

Outlook: Watch for a possible shakeup at the Pentagon after the midterms if an Iran operation stumbles, with Hegseth as the likely scapegoat.