Bitcoin is sitting below a key long-term average, and the setup is bullish only if it climbs back above it.

• Bitcoin is currently trading below its 200-day average, around $82,100.
• History shows that when Bitcoin loses this average and later reclaims it, the coin is green a month later 67% of the time, with a typical gain near 11.5%.
• Right now this pattern does not apply, since Bitcoin remains under the line as of today.
• A move back above that level would flip the outlook bullish based on past patterns.

Outlook: Watch for Bitcoin to close back above its 200-day average — if it does, odds favor a positive move over the following month.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Neutral now, turns bullish on a reclaim
• **Resistance:** $82,100 (200-day simple moving average)
• **Targets:** ~11.5% upside over the following month if reclaimed
• **Invalidation:** Staying below $82,100 keeps the bullish setup off