A new round of strikes on Iran's energy and water infrastructure could spiral into a wider regional war with almost no upside, hurting oil markets and economies worldwide.

• Iran has more targets left to hit back with, since Israel and its allies already struck Iran's military sites in earlier rounds and have nothing new left to target.
• If Israel or its allies strike Iran's energy infrastructure, Iran is likely to retaliate by hitting desalination plants and energy sites in Israel and Gulf Arab countries.
• Gulf countries depend heavily on desalination for drinking water, so attacks there would be a survival-level threat, not just an economic one.
• A wider strike would turn the Strait of Hormuz into a bigger risk for oil shipments, threatening to disrupt oil flows and rattle the global economy.
• Inside the U.S., frustration over the handling of the Iran conflict is fueling talk that the Secretary of War could be pushed out after the midterm elections.

Outlook: Risk of a fresh escalation is rising, with little strategic gain and a real chance of oil shocks and regional water crises.