Texas is on pace for its highest-ever midterm turnout, and early signs point to an edge for Democrats, though the race remains far from settled.

• Texas is tracking toward almost 10 million votes, within striking distance of general-election turnout, though that's actually in line with the last big midterm in 2018.
• In the early vote so far, Democratic-leaning voters have shown up strong while Republicans are gradually closing the gap, but most of the electorate hasn't shown its hand yet since roughly 60% of early voters don't have a known primary history.
• Attorney General Ken Paxton looks weaker than a typical Republican in this race, having lost support among Republican voters in recent polls, putting him at a disadvantage against Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred even if the overall electorate leans Republican.
• Governor Greg Abbott looks more secure than Paxton since he draws support across party lines and is less tied to the national political mood, though his team's early confidence has wavered slightly as Democratic turnout builds.
• Texas Republicans' redrawing of congressional districts to grab more U.S. House seats may only net them one or two, since the new southern districts have shifted toward Democrats on the back of Hispanic voters moving away from Republicans.

Outlook: The real signal won't be clear until more non-primary voters cast ballots over the next two weeks, with the governor's race likely to show whether this is a genuine Democratic wave or a normal midterm.