The US and Israel appear to be preparing a new round of attacks on Iran, which would be bad news for oil markets, American troops in the region, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Netanyahu and Trump discussed restarting strikes on Iran, possibly before the Israeli and US midterm elections.
• Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is open and under US control, but Iranian forces have hit two dozen vessels there, and a mine just sank a UAE-owned container ship.
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and US Central Command leadership are the strongest backers of resuming the war.
• The US is running low on missile interceptors, and Saudi Arabia is taking daily hits from the Houthis without help.
• Israeli intelligence claims Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program at Pickaxe Mountain, a site so deep that striking it could mean using a tactical nuclear weapon.

Outlook: Fighting looks likely to restart either just before or soon after the elections, and Iran has said it will answer by hitting oil and gas infrastructure and US warships.