TSMC reports third-quarter results on October 15, and the numbers look strong — good news for the company and its suppliers, though the stock has often sold off after past calls because expectations run so high.

• Third-quarter sales already beat the top end of TSMC's own forecast, and quarterly profit is expected to hit a record for the sixth quarter in a row.
• AI demand is the engine: big customers like Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom keep ordering, and AI-related sales could double in 2027.
• Spending plans are the main thing investors want to hear — this year's budget was already raised, and banks expect another big jump next year, which would flow straight to equipment and materials suppliers.
• The catch is margins: the new 2-nanometer chips cost a lot to ramp up and squeeze profit margins early on, and advanced packaging for AI chips is still sold out.
• Taiwan's market just had one of its worst days ever for foreign selling, with TSMC the single biggest target, so nerves are high going into the call.

Outlook: Strong results are largely priced in, so the stock reaction will hinge on whether management sounds more confident than it did in July about next year's demand and spending.