Security experts from across Asia and the West warned that China is squeezing its neighbours at sea with tactics that stop just short of war — bad news for Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines, which have few good ways to push back.

• China uses its coast guard, legal claims and law enforcement patrols to pressure neighbours without crossing the line into armed conflict.
• Its coast guard was folded into the military chain of command in 2018 and has grown more aggressive around Taiwan since Nancy Pelosi's visit, joining formal war games against the island in 2024.
• The core trick is to pick waters where sea claims overlap or the law is murky, then act like a police force — making it hard for the targeted country to respond firmly.
• Taiwan faces a daily dilemma: if avoiding escalation always comes first, the pressured side just keeps retreating, so some now argue for raising the stakes to force China to back off.
• The Philippines counters by inviting journalists aboard patrol ships and publishing ship tracks and video in real time, betting that transparency deters.

Outlook: Expect more cooperation on sea surveillance, satellite and radar data sharing, and protection of ports and undersea cables, as grey-zone pressure settles in as the new normal.