Taiwan's market dropped hard even as big investors turned bullish on TSMC ahead of its third-quarter earnings call — a mixed picture for Taiwan tech investors.

• TSMC reports third-quarter results on October 15, with September sales hitting a record for the month on strong AI and high-performance computing demand.
• Foreign brokers all stayed positive before the call; Macquarie set the highest 12-month target at NT$4,410 and Citi sees NT$4,000, while most others sit between NT$3,300 and NT$3,700.
• Taiwan's main index fell nearly 1,000 points on the day, slipping back below 49,000, and TSMC itself closed lower at NT$2,490.
• Silicon wafer makers were hit hardest as chip inventory piles up — GlobalWafers fell to its daily limit, with SAS and Wafer Works also sliding.
• Money keeps pouring into ETFs: Fubon Technology (0052) holds the most TSMC at 63%, and active funds like Nomura Taiwan 50 (00985A) doubled in size in two weeks after its first dividend.

Outlook: The October 15 call is the key signal for second-half tech demand, with the focus on 3nm and 2nm progress, advanced packaging capacity, and how much the big cloud companies plan to spend on AI.