A US scholar argues Washington cannot afford to let China take Taiwan — bad news for anyone hoping the island can be written off cheaply.

• Hudson Institute's Michael Sobolik says opponents of defending Taiwan both downplay the damage a Chinese takeover would cause and overrate America's ability to block Chinese dominance afterward.
• The economic hit would be severe: estimates put the damage to US output at 3% to 11%, and Beijing could also pressure the Philippines and Indonesia to close off alternative shipping routes.
• Taiwan makes almost all of the world's advanced chips, and US capacity is still projected to be only a tenth of the global total by 2030.
• Losing Taiwan would likely push Japan and South Korea toward building nuclear weapons, with smaller states drifting into China's orbit instead.
• Xi Jinping has told Chinese people to prepare to "eat bitterness" and cut reliance on the West, so assuming economic self-interest will restrain him is a mistake.

Outlook: Expect continued pressure in Washington to treat Taiwan as a core US interest rather than a negotiable one, echoing the 1950s shift after the Korean War.