Iran's attacks on oil tankers are escalating, which is bad news for shipping, gas prices, and anyone betting the markets stay calm.

• Six vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz in a single day, including drone and mine attacks and a fire aboard a crude carrier; two Indian crew members are missing.
• The strait is clearly not secure, despite earlier claims that Iran's capabilities had been wiped out.
• The diesel squeeze is already forcing policy shifts — sanctions on Russian oil have been lifted to ease the shortage.
• Iran is test-firing large numbers of ballistic missiles and running its biggest military exercise since the war began, expecting another round of fighting with the US and Israel.
• Stocks rose anyway, a disconnect that looks less like confidence than fear of what happens once selling starts in overstretched AI names.

Outlook: More strikes on Gulf oil and gas facilities look likely, which points to sharply higher gas prices and a market that eventually has to reprice.