Trump claimed a diesel supply deal with Putin and an energy ceasefire in Ukraine, but neither appears real — bad news for anyone hoping diesel prices fall soon.

• Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have hurt Russia's economy and tightened diesel supply worldwide, including in the U.S.
• Trump said Russia would ship millions of tons of diesel, but the volumes are a tiny slice of what the U.S. already makes.
• Hours earlier he signed new Russia sanctions into law, so U.S. customs likely could not even clear a Russian cargo.
• The "energy ceasefire" he posted was followed immediately by Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil storage and Russian missile attacks that blacked out Kyiv.
• Washington is now threatening to cut weapons supplies to pressure Ukraine into sparing Russian refineries, while still weighing a missile production deal there.

Outlook: Diesel prices are unlikely to drop from this, and the attacks on energy targets look set to continue through the midterms.