Lumber prices have dropped to their lowest in two years, which is good news for anyone building a deck or fence but bad news for sawmills, timber producers, and the rural towns that depend on them.

• Home loan rates have climbed to their highest level since 2023, and mortgage applications have fallen five weeks straight.
• Fewer homes being bought and built means less demand for wood, so the price is falling with it.
• High gas and energy costs plus stubborn inflation are making this worse than the last time rates were this high.
• Home prices are sliding in parts of the country, with Tampa condos down almost 40% from their peak.
• Canada has hit back with its own tariffs on US lumber and plywood, adding more uncertainty for mills.

Outlook: Weak home building is likely to keep pushing lumber prices down, with no recovery expected soon.