China has launched live-fire military drills across four seas around Taiwan, raising tensions in the region and alarming Taiwan and its neighbors.

• The drills cover the Bohai, Yellow, East China and South China seas, with live ammunition being fired.
• Taiwan's ruling DPP says the exercises do nothing for regional peace and will draw international condemnation.
• The timing looks deliberate: Beijing announced the firing zones days before President Lai Ching-te's National Day speech, which reads as an attempt to intimidate.
• Japan and the US are preparing their own "Resolute Dragon" exercise later this month, and US Marines are expected to place advanced anti-ship and air-defense missiles on Yonaguni Island, close to Taiwan.
• A new Japanese poll shows 80% of people there oppose sending their own forces into a fight over Taiwan, even while naming China as the biggest threat to world peace.

Outlook: Expect more drills and more US-Japan hardware near Taiwan, with Taipei pushing to strengthen its own defenses rather than count on outside troops.