Trump's deportation push is hurting the economy in South Texas, bad news for the Latino voters who swung to him in 2024 and for Republicans heading into the midterms.

• Farm jobs in four border counties fell 13% and construction work is down, as immigration arrests pulled workers out of the local labor force.
• Small businesses are losing customers who now stay home to avoid immigration agents, and building permits across Texas have dropped sharply.
• Most of those arrested in South Texas had no criminal record, and arrests there jumped more than twentyfold in two years.
• Voters who backed Trump expected a secure border, not the removal of neighbors, co-workers, and relatives — many now say they regret it.
• Democrats lead Republicans among likely Hispanic voters by about 35 points, upending the Texas map Republicans redrew assuming Latino support would hold.

Outlook: Four competitive House seats in majority-Hispanic South Texas districts could decide control of Congress, and the backlash puts them in play for Democrats.