Lai Ching-te's National Day address placed its emphasis on pursuing deterrence and dialogue in parallel. US scholars saw the tone as moderate and pragmatic, and read it as a neutral-to-stabilising signal for the Taiwan Strait.

• Lai said China continues to apply pressure through military and grey-zone actions in an attempt to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, and that Taiwan is increasing its defence investment to deter war, not to provoke.
• He stressed that strengthening self-defence does not mean abandoning dialogue, but rather ensuring that dialogue is built on a foundation of parity and dignity.
• Richard Bush, former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, said he was struck by the moderate tone of the address's treatment of cross-strait relations.
• Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund took the view that Lai's warning — that stability in US-China relations should not be built on accepting Beijing's historical narrative — was addressed to Beijing and Washington alike.
• The backdrop is Xi Jinping's visit to the United States in late September and his talks with Trump, after which both sides' statements referred to their World War II alliance, raising concerns in Taiwan that the history of the war is being distorted.

Outlook: Taiwan will continue in the near term to use the dual-track formula of "deterrence plus dialogue", while watching closely for signs that US-China interactions are sidelining Taiwan on questions of historical standing.