Spain has chosen not to build a military that matches its size or wealth, and that is a problem for NATO at a moment when Europe is rearming.

• Spain was the only NATO member to refuse the alliance's 5% defense spending target, angering Trump enough that he floated throwing Spain out.
• Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez gains at home by refusing: most Spaniards oppose more defense spending, and his government is weak and scandal-hit ahead of a 2027 vote.
• Spain sits far from Russia and feels no urgent threat, so Madrid would rather spend on social programs than tanks.
• The hardware shows decades of neglect: old frigates, few modern tanks, aging jets, no F-35 order, and the European sixth-generation fighter project it bet on has collapsed.
• Spain guards the gateway to the Mediterranean and the route from Africa, where migration, smuggling, and Islamist insurgencies in Mali and Niger are growing — problems a stronger Spain could help contain.

Outlook: Expect more friction between Madrid and Washington over spending, with no sign Spain plans a serious military build-up before its next election.