Rising diesel prices are squeezing truckers and threatening to push up the price of almost everything Americans buy.

• Diesel is already at $8 in California, and the national average would need to climb about 20% to get there.
• Hauling costs jump by a third or more at those prices, and truckers have floated a strike over it.
• Attacks on refineries — Ukraine hitting Russian plants, Houthis hitting Saudi ones — are choking supply.
• Thin fuel stockpiles, winter heating demand, and refinery breakdowns could all make it worse.
• Forecasters are unusually unsure, with JP Morgan declining to predict where this goes.

Outlook: There's a 20–30% chance diesel hits an $8 national average by December, and higher shipping costs would land on consumer prices.