China sent a large group of warplanes and ships around Taiwan the day before Taiwan's National Day, raising tension but drawing no shots.

• Taiwan's military tracked 21 Chinese aircraft and 9 ships and government vessels near the island in one day.
• More than half the planes crossed the middle line of the Taiwan Strait into Taiwan's northern, central and southwestern air space.
• Beijing called it a "joint combat readiness patrol," pairing jets, drones and helicopters with navy ships.
• Taiwan responded with its own planes, ships and land-based missile units, but did not escalate.
• The timing, right before the October 10 National Day, looks like deliberate pressure on Taipei.

Outlook: Expect more of these patrols around and just after National Day, with Taiwan monitoring rather than confronting.