Speaking in the United States, former President Tsai Ing-wen reaffirmed Taiwan's cross-strait consensus — maintaining the status quo and avoiding unnecessary provocation — while stating clearly that Taiwan will defend its own democracy and security, a mildly positive signal for stability in the Taiwan Strait.

• Tsai Ing-wen delivered a speech at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University on how Taiwan is using democracy to build resilience.
• She said that although Taiwanese society holds differing views on the future of cross-strait relations, a consensus has formed around maintaining the status quo and avoiding provocation.
• She stressed that the purpose of restraint is to avoid miscalculation and does not amount to weakness, and that it gives Taiwan time to keep strengthening itself.
• She noted that external authoritarian interference has grown more sophisticated, while domestic populism and polarisation make it harder for democracies to form a unified response.
• She cited contentious issues such as pension reform and marriage equality as examples of how disagreements can be handled within a democratic system rather than paralysing the country.

Outlook: Taiwan's cross-strait approach is expected to remain within the status quo framework of "no provocation, but continued strengthening of defences" in the near term, with pressure from Beijing and political divisions on the island remaining the main variables.