Oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again, which is good news for global energy markets, but Iran is fighting back harder and the recovery looks fragile.

• Gulf oil exports are back to where they were before the US and Israel started bombing in February.
• The US got there by destroying Iran's coastal radars and mine-laying gear, and by escorting tankers through two protected windows a day.
• Getting oil out is still wildly expensive — shipping firms charge tens of millions per run and pay sailors huge bonuses, which keeps gas prices high.
• Iran has ramped up attacks on tankers to the worst week since February, and crude traffic through the strait dropped sharply again this week.
• One tanker was hit deep inside the Persian Gulf, far from the strait — a sign Iran may widen the fight across a thousand kilometers of coastline.

Iran is paying a brutal price for holding on: its currency has lost more than half its value in a year, food prices are out of control, unemployment is widespread, and it is now the only country in the Middle East exporting no oil at all. Its oil minister just quit, days after a report that billions in oil revenue never made it home. Even hardliners are calling this the regime's worst crisis ever, though some talk of dragging the conflict out until Trump leaves office.

Outlook: Washington may have won the strait for now, but the fight is likely shifting to the wider Gulf and could grind on for years.