Four Chinese coast guard ships pushed into Taiwan-controlled waters around Kinmen, and Taiwan's coast guard shadowed each one until they left — a tense but contained standoff on the eve of Taiwan's National Day.

• The ships came in two pairs from opposite directions near Kinmen's Liaoluo area in the morning and were out of the restricted zone within two hours.
• Taiwan sent patrol boats to match them one-for-one, sailing alongside to block them from going deeper and broadcasting warnings in Chinese and English.
• Kinmen sits just a few miles off mainland China, which makes it the easiest place for Beijing to apply pressure without firing a shot.
• Taiwan's coast guard says the National Day period is exactly when China ramps up these "gray zone" moves and information pressure, so it is on round-the-clock alert.

Outlook: Expect more of these short, deniable incursions around Kinmen through the holiday, with Taiwan answering each one by escorting rather than confronting.