A long-running study of Bitcoin's daily chart suggests sharp run-ups rarely hold, which is a warning for anyone buying into a vertical move.

• When a whole daily candle floats above the 5-day moving average, that gap closes again about 82% of the time.
• The setup is rare: over 14 years and more than 5,000 daily candles, it has only happened 476 times.
• It also ends fast — the typical gap shut after a single day's close.
• Think of it as a dog on a leash: price can sprint ahead, but the short moving average pulls it back.

Outlook: Expect any steep daily surge in Bitcoin to be followed quickly by a pullback or pause rather than a clean continuation.