Russia is ramping up threats and small provocations around Kaliningrad in what looks like an attempt to goad NATO into firing first — bad news for Poland and the Baltic states.

• Putin has vowed to use "all weapons at our disposal" to defend Kaliningrad, Russia's armed enclave between Poland and Lithuania.
• He claims NATO is planning to attack it, while Russia has actually pulled most of its forces out of the enclave to fight in Ukraine.
• Recent incidents fit a pattern: a Russian helicopter crossed into Poland and loitered, drones sank a cargo ship off Bulgaria killing 10, and armed men pushed migrants over Latvia's border.
• Each case is designed to be too small for NATO to agree on a joint response, which would quietly gut the alliance's mutual defense promise.
• Shooting down a Russian aircraft that crashes back inside Kaliningrad would hand Moscow the story that NATO struck Russian soil first.

Outlook: Expect more border probes and loud warnings about Kaliningrad, with Russia ready to stage an attack itself if NATO refuses to take the bait.