Michigan's Senate race is tilting toward Abdul El-Sayed, with Republicans struggling to land attacks and Mike Rogers now running away from Trump's trade war.

• A focus group of verified Trump voters said they would back El-Sayed or not vote at all, and polling shows he has unusual crossover appeal with Trump voters.
• Republican attacks are leaning on Israel and Islamophobia, with Trump calling El-Sayed a terrorist sympathizer, and it does not appear to be working.
• Rogers is now demanding an end to the Canada tariffs he once praised, a sign that high prices and a battered auto industry are hurting Republicans in Michigan.
• El-Sayed's weak spot is Black voters in Detroit, some of whom feel taken for granted; Obama is coming in to campaign for him.
• Democrats are surging far harder in red states like Kansas and Iowa than in Michigan or Maine, which nobody can fully explain yet.

Outlook: El-Sayed looks likely to win, but the margin — razor-thin or five-plus points — will shape how his brand of politics is read heading into 2028.