Leaked fundraiser audio shows Texas attorney general Ken Paxton privately blaming the Iran war and high gas prices for sinking his Senate campaign — bad news for Republicans heading into the midterms.

• Paxton told donors the drag on his race is not tariffs but the war, gas prices, and diesel above $6 a gallon.
• He said affordability is his biggest problem and admitted he has no control over the war or pump prices.
• Expensive diesel pushes up food and shipping costs, so the pain spreads well beyond drivers.
• Trump's approval sits near 32%, yet Paxton keeps publicly defending the decisions he privately blames.
• His fix — new tax deductions for health, housing, and gym costs plus a bigger child tax credit — does nothing about prices now.

Outlook: Expect more Republicans in tight races to quietly distance themselves from the war as energy costs keep squeezing voters.