High diesel prices are set to push up shipping costs this holiday season, bad news for shoppers and retailers alike.

• Diesel is up 77% this year, even after slipping from a September peak.
• War damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia has squeezed global supply.
• Retailers face higher costs just to move goods from warehouses to stores.
• Parcel shipping prices are up sharply, so expect higher delivery fees online.
• Free shipping may require bigger orders, and returns could start costing money.

Outlook: Shoppers should expect to pay more for delivery and returns through the holidays unless diesel prices fall further.