North Korea is publicly backing Beijing over Taiwan and doubling down on its support for Russia, a sign the two conflicts are drawing closer together.

• North Korean state media attacked US arms sales to Taiwan and said Washington is making the Taiwan Strait more dangerous.
• The warning told the US to think hard about whether it is ready to face China directly over Taiwan and live with the consequences.
• The trigger was the arrival of the first new F-16V fighter jets Taiwan ordered from the US in 2019.
• Kim Jong-un also sent Putin a birthday message promising more support for Russia's war, calling it a just fight Russia will win.
• Ukraine and South Korea estimate North Korea has sent roughly 14,000 to 15,000 troops to help Russia since 2024.

Outlook: Expect North Korea to keep lining up rhetorically with China and materially with Russia, hardening the split between Washington and the Moscow-Pyongyang-Beijing bloc.