Brazil's presidential race is heading to a runoff with the right-wing Bolsonaro family ahead, a bad sign for Lula and for anyone hoping Brazil's economy stabilizes soon.

• Flavio Bolsonaro took a narrow lead over Lula in the first round, beating polls that had Lula up by five points.
• Neither cleared the 50% needed to win outright, so a runoff follows on October 25th, and other right-wing candidates pulled another 5% that likely flows to Bolsonaro.
• Trump's trade war has hammered Brazil's economy, and Trump is close to the Bolsonaro family — Flavio has promised tighter trade ties with Washington if he wins.
• Voters are mostly angry about street crime, drug gangs, and the cost of living, even though Flavio himself has faced accusations tied to organized crime and drug trafficking.
• Flavio is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, now under house arrest over his attempt to overturn the last election.

Outlook: Bolsonaro looks positioned to win the October 25th runoff, which would hand Brazil to a Trump-aligned government and likely bring tariff relief in exchange for political loyalty.