A leaked US intelligence assessment says Israel's own society is fracturing after three years of war — bad news for Netanyahu heading into this month's elections.

• A CIA "Red Cell" report from August, titled *Fracture from Within*, warns Israel faces civil unrest or even state collapse.
• The pressures it lists: an economic crisis, ballooning military spending, traumatized combat veterans coming home armed, anger over draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, and settler violence in the West Bank.
• Netanyahu is fighting to stay in power while under a corruption investigation, which could trigger a constitutional fight.
• A year into the Gaza ceasefire, the killing has not fully stopped, Hamas is weakened but not dismantled, and Israel now controls roughly two-thirds of Gaza instead of pulling back.
• A new documentary featuring Israeli intelligence officers voicing moral doubts about the targeting campaign is shaking the election and rattling Likud.

Outlook: The October 27 election will test whether Israeli voters break with the hardline coalition or entrench it further.