Republican voter enthusiasm is sagging ahead of the midterms, a bad sign for the party and a quiet opening for Democrats.

• The party has angry voters but no candidates people are excited to campaign for — and anger alone does not win elections.
• Betting markets now show Vivek Ramaswamy losing badly in the Ohio governor's race and Ken Paxton trailing in Texas, even after Trump showed up to help.
• Trump telling supporters to "vote as if I'm on the ballot" is not transferring his 2024 energy to other candidates.
• Blame lands on Trump and the RNC, with the primary system handing nominations to donor- and PAC-connected insiders instead of strong candidates.
• Trump also has no clear successor, and anyone trying to build their own identity risks a public war with him.

Outlook: Without candidates the base is genuinely excited about, Republicans look set to underperform in the midterms.