Bitcoin's momentum signals are lining up bullish, which is good news for holders and bad news for anyone waiting on a deep pullback.

• A weekly momentum indicator pushed into overbought territory for the first time in months — a setup that led to gains 12 of the last 13 times.
• Bitcoin also closed three green months in a row, which has been followed by higher prices most of the time looking out one to six months.
• Older data from Bitcoin's early years inflates these returns, so the honest version is smaller gains, not the headline ones.
• Sentiment is still mildly pessimistic, with most people either expecting a crash or ignoring crypto entirely — a contrarian positive.
• The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at its next meeting, which would generally help risk markets.

Outlook: Sideways-to-slightly-up trading through early October, with the bigger push higher expected around mid-to-late month.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish over the next one to six months, with short-term chop allowed.
• **Buy / accumulate:** Daily dollar-cost averaging now; dip buys in the $83,000–$84,000 bounce zone.
• **Support:** $85,000 mid-band (daily closes above it keep the trend intact), then $83,000–$84,000, with the trend pivot at $80,000.
• **Resistance:** $87,000–$88,500, then $90,000.
• **Targets:** $90,000 near-term, $92,500–$95,000 as the realistic case, above $100,000 by end of October on the stronger historical read.
• **Invalidation:** A daily close back below $85,000 opens a correction; below $82,200 puts a break under $80,000 in play.