Bitcoin looks likely to end the year above $100,000 based on how it has performed in past year-end stretches, which is good news for holders and buyers alike.

• A 25% gain from here into year-end would put Bitcoin near $108,000.
• Using only the weaker returns since 2018, the gain would be closer to 18% — still above six figures.
• The odds favor Bitcoin reaching six digits rather than missing it.
• Whether it holds that level into the final days of the year is much less certain.
• Anyone still expecting a near-term low gets a cheaper entry out of it.

Outlook: Bitcoin is more likely than not to trade above $100,000 before year-end, though holding there is the open question.

## Bitcoin Levels

• **Bias:** Bullish into year-end
• **Targets:** $108,000 on a 25% move; just above $100,000 on the more conservative 18% move