New polling shows Republicans slipping badly in deep-red Senate races, a bad sign for Trump's party and a rare opening for Democrats.

• Trump is telling crowds to vote Republican even if they hate the candidates, and his approval in five red states has fallen to 40%.
• Democrats lead or are tied in Alaska, Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Kansas, and are close in Iowa — races that normally are not competitive.
• Farm and factory states are hurting: high diesel prices, tariffs raising the cost of parts, and ICE raids pushing up labor costs in Kansas.
• Democrats have picked candidates voters actually like, while Republicans are dragged down by being tied to Trump — Ken Paxton in Texas is the least popular of the ten candidates tested.
• Maine is the exception: the Democratic campaign there has frozen out the volunteer base from Graham Platner's primary run and is now trailing Susan Collins.

Outlook: Flipping three seats in states Trump won by double digits is still a long shot, and a late Republican turnout surge could save the Senate even if these polls are right.