China is holding back its own fuel supply just as winter nears, which is bad news for Europe, Japan, and anyone hoping for cheaper oil.

• China has quietly scaled back gasoline and diesel export shipments to protect its own supply.
• Beijing is also buying more crude on the open market, pushing global prices up further.
• Oil is still above $100 a barrel despite claims that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal.
• The G7 and EU were pressured into releasing emergency oil reserves, a risky move with winter coming.
• Trump has said high oil prices are an acceptable cost of his Iran strategy, and that inflation helps pay down the national debt.

Outlook: Europe and Asia face a tighter, more expensive energy winter while China gains leverage over who gets fuel and on what terms.