Trump's approval has fallen to the lowest level of either of his terms, and that is bad news for Republicans heading into the midterms.

• A new AP poll puts his approval at 31%, below even his worst pandemic numbers.
• He told a crowd he would win by 25% today, though he never cracked 50% of the vote in any election.
• The damage is blamed on wars he promised to end but didn't, new conflicts he started, and trade wars that pushed up prices.
• Republicans face a turnout problem: about a third of his old supporters now feel betrayed, and heavy gerrymandering may not be enough to save the House.
• Texas is a test case — Trump campaigned for Ken Paxton while joking he didn't know or care if Paxton was even in the room, and polls show Paxton trailing.

Outlook: Democrats look set for big midterm gains unless their own candidates run timid, apologetic campaigns and squander the lead.