Operation Vivaldi: How Ukraine's Counteroffensive Changed the War

Oct 03, 2026

Ukraine has quietly clawed back territory near Lyman and wrecked Russia's plan to encircle its fortress belt — bad news for Putin, good news for Kiev.

  • A secret four-month Ukrainian offensive retook hundreds of square kilometers Russia spent years capturing.
  • Russia's push toward the fortress city of Slovyansk has collapsed, killing the plan to squeeze Ukraine's Donbas defenses from two sides.
  • Ukraine first starved the front with drone strikes on fuel, ammo, and command posts, then jammed Russian drones while keeping its own flying.
  • Ground robots dropped behind enemy lines by heavy drones, plus remote-driven armored vehicle bombs, broke Russian defenses before troops moved in.
  • Kiev kept the whole thing secret for months, so Russia never adapted — and Moscow still publicly claims land it does not hold.

Outlook: Russia is expected to throw hundreds of thousands of new conscripts at retaking the area over the next half year, which likely stretches the war out by years rather than ending it.

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