Michael Burry bets on an AI crash

Oct 03, 2026

Michael Burry, who called the 2008 housing crash, has moved up his timeline for an AI bust — bad news for stock investors, banks, and anyone whose job depends on the tech boom.

  • Burry switched from plain short bets to put options on AI stocks, a sign he thinks the bubble bursts sooner than expected, possibly before next summer.
  • The market's strength is paper-thin: five big tech names — Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Alphabet, and Nvidia — account for nearly all of the S&P 500's recent gains.
  • Banks have lent hundreds of billions to AI companies, so a stumble in AI revenue could hit the banking system the way bad mortgages did in 2008.
  • OpenAI has already floated the idea of the government acting as "insurer of last resort," which reads as planning for failure and a taxpayer bailout.
  • Government bond yields are climbing to levels not seen in two decades, and every past spike this fast has been followed by some kind of financial blow-up.

Outlook: Expect more pressure as AI earnings expectations run far ahead of real profits, with one bad quarter enough to trigger a broad market drop.

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