Iran is losing its grip on Gulf oil flows, and that is good news for markets and for US negotiators.

• Iran's oil exports have collapsed to under a tenth of pre-war levels while the rest of the region's shipments are nearly back to normal.
• Hawks inside Iran, including the foreign minister, are now offering nuclear inspections in exchange for sanctions relief — a sign the economy is hurting.
• The US naval blockade is working better than expected, with Washington backstopping ship insurers and guaranteeing safe passage.
• Another carrier strike group and 9,000-10,000 more troops are heading to the region, less as escalation than as pressure to force a deal.
• Government bond yields keep jumping around because no deal exists yet; stocks have already hit new highs anyway.

Outlook: A nuclear deal looks increasingly likely, which would push bond yields lower and give stocks another leg up.